Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.09 – 312.41

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.5 ±13.5

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 64.33Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -10.7Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 115.46Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 719.6 ±11.7

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 93.05Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 135.83Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 83.53Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 3324, 4145

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 3324, 4145

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

83.3 50%

Endgame

58.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9075, 4096, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9075, 4096, 4028

Auto

63.1 21%

Teleop

161.8 54%

Endgame

76.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.1pts

Blue projected score312.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.3
Score range: 132–349
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 206.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.5Season APEX719.6

23.5Auto63.1

83.3Teleop161.8

58.8Endgame76.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	86
teleop	101	217
endgame	83	147
foul	0	15
total	184	465

Result

Final score

184 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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