Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.12 – 186.92

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±14.5

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 33.37Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 51.43Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 67.32Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±14.5

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 36.56Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 59.17Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 91.19Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2010, 1014, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2010, 1014, 3138

Auto

20.8 13%

Teleop

92.8 59%

Endgame

42.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3484, 2614, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3484, 2614, 1038

Auto

54.6 29%

Teleop

87.7 46%

Endgame

47.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.1pts

Blue projected score186.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 115–224
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 207.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.9Season APEX342.2

20.8Auto54.6

92.8Teleop87.7

42.6Endgame47.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	23
teleop	106	135
endgame	20	72
foul	0	0
total	152	230

Result

Final score

152 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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