Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.39 – 132.72

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 93.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.9 ±12.9

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 4.05Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 216.24Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 9.1Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±13.9

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 38.33Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 50.38Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 44.01Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3324, 4028, 6964

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3324, 4028, 6964

Auto

36.5 16%

Teleop

132.2 57%

Endgame

62.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9097, 4601, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 4601, 1014

Auto

30.0 24%

Teleop

67.7 54%

Endgame

28.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.4pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.7
Score range: 88–274
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 250.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.9Season APEX454.4

36.5Auto30

132.2Teleop67.7

62.3Endgame28.8

38Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	10
teleop	26	105
endgame	14	26
foul	0	0
total	51	141

Result

Final score

51 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 93.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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