Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.56 – 79.36

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.4 ±14.1

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 47.86Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 54.51Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 110.19Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.8 ±14.5

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 31.37Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 40.62Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 7.37Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 325, 144, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 325, 144, 117

Auto

54.9 26%

Teleop

115.0 55%

Endgame

38.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 578, 3814, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 578, 3814, 4085

Auto

9.8 12%

Teleop

31.2 39%

Endgame

39.4 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.55 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score212.6pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.2
Score range: 41–251
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 208.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.4Season APEX256.8

54.9Auto9.8

115Teleop31.2

38.1Endgame39.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	22
teleop	158	64
endgame	24	39
foul	0	5
total	238	130

Result

Final score

238 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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