Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.3 – 214.74

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.5 ±13.5

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 49.48Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 132.55Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 75.27Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.1 ±17.7

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 132.55Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 52.24Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9139Reserve Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 29.95Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10207, 2252, 2172

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10207, 2252, 2172

Auto

38.8 15%

Teleop

142.4 57%

Endgame

70.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 4467, 9139

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2603, 4467, 9139

Auto

27.2 14%

Teleop

100.0 51%

Endgame

70.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score257.3pts

Blue projected score214.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.6
Score range: 177–295
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 210.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.5Season APEX412.1

38.8Auto27.2

142.4Teleop100

70.5Endgame70

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	187	48
endgame	47	55
foul	0	0
total	282	119

Result

Final score

282 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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