Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.25 – 85.59

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 128.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.5 ±12.9

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 12.87Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 57.81Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 22.57Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.4 ±14.5

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 57.81Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 12.87Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 14.91Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 5811, 677

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4028, 5811, 677

Auto

19.4 21%

Teleop

36.0 39%

Endgame

37.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8243, 6964, 3484

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8243, 6964, 3484

Auto

16.3 19%

Teleop

35.8 42%

Endgame

33.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.3pts

Blue projected score85.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.7
Score range: 49–130
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 206.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.5Season APEX259.4

19.4Auto16.3

36Teleop35.8

37.6Endgame33.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	30
teleop	226	22
endgame	54	20
foul	0	0
total	336	72

Result

Final score

336 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 128.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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