Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.52 – 209.26

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

317 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 157.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.2 ±12.4

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 49.95Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 94Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX -18.43Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±13.5

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 94Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 77.57Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 37.69Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2338, 117, 9152

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2338, 117, 9152

Auto

31.4 25%

Teleop

43.6 35%

Endgame

51.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1038, 4096, 144

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 4096, 144

Auto

47.5 23%

Teleop

123.2 59%

Endgame

38.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score209.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.7
Score range: 91–244
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 197.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.2Season APEX532.1

31.4Auto47.5

43.6Teleop123.2

51.3Endgame38.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	86
teleop	142	166
endgame	72	75
foul	30	5
total	317	332

Result

Final score

317 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 157.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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