Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.97 – 125.86

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±15.6

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 38.24Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 63.87Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 31.86Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.3 ±14.5

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 28.15Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 32.28Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 65.43Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 554, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 554, 2228

Auto

17.3 13%

Teleop

69.0 52%

Endgame

47.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1014, 6302, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1014, 6302, 3504

Auto

16.5 13%

Teleop

65.9 53%

Endgame

42.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score125.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.1
Score range: 91–169
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 196.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX442.3

17.3Auto16.5

69Teleop65.9

47.4Endgame42.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	128	112
endgame	62	58
foul	0	0
total	226	185

Result

Final score

226 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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