Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.09 – 116.86

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 96.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.1 ±13.5

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 48.57Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 36.86Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 96.66Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±17.7

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 44.86Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9139Reserve Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 36.86Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 35.14Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5667, 9075, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5667, 9075, 4611

Auto

34.0 19%

Teleop

87.7 50%

Endgame

54.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2010, 9139, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2010, 9139, 4085

Auto

37.9 34%

Teleop

48.5 44%

Endgame

24.8 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.1pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.2
Score range: 82–217
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 195.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.1Season APEX222.2

34Auto37.9

87.7Teleop48.5

54.5Endgame24.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	11
teleop	152	21
endgame	124	33
foul	0	10
total	334	75

Result

Final score

334 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 96.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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