Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
159.71 – 107.5
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
278 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 79.4 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.8 ±13.9
Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 41.71Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 65.9Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 113Event APEX 52.1Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±14.5
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 41.71Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77Event APEX 51.22Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 14.57Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2614, 10011, 2172
59
/ 100 compatProjected
159.7 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 2614, 10011, 2172
Auto
21.7 14%
Teleop
93.1 59%
Endgame
43.4 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8145, 578, 3324
48
/ 100 compatProjected
107.5 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 8145, 578, 3324
Auto
27.0 25%
Teleop
41.4 39%
Endgame
39.1 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 73%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score159.7pts
Blue projected score107.5pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 73%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.2
- Score range
- 72–196
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
351.8Season APEX245
21.7Auto27
93.1Teleop41.4
43.4Endgame39.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 8 |
| teleop | 159 | 41 |
| endgame | 50 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 278 | 67 |
Result
Final score
278 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 79.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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