Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174 – 178

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±13.5

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 40.29Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 76Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 57.71Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.4 ±15

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 61.71Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 40.29Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 76Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9097, 325, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

174 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 325, 2399

Auto

18.9 11%

Teleop

105.7 61%

Endgame

49.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3138, 4601, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3138, 4601, 6237

Auto

30.0 17%

Teleop

94.0 53%

Endgame

54.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174pts

Blue projected score178pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4
Score range: 139–213
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 195.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.8Season APEX480.4

18.9Auto30

105.7Teleop94

49.4Endgame54

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	42
teleop	86	174
endgame	59	55
foul	0	0
total	172	271

Result

Final score

172 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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