Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.5 – 185.66

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.8 ±12.4

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 77.66Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 146.15Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 191.69Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±15

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 128.96Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 66.26Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -9.56Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 379, 4611, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.5 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 379, 4611, 4096

Auto

71.0 17%

Teleop

232.7 57%

Endgame

107.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4467, 10011, 432

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4467, 10011, 432

Auto

32.0 17%

Teleop

107.2 58%

Endgame

45.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score415.5pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.8
Score range: 141–461
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 250.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.8Season APEX426.3

71Auto32

232.7Teleop107.2

107.2Endgame45.5

79Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	19
teleop	191	124
endgame	68	53
foul	0	5
total	313	201

Result

Final score

313 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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