Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.82 – 419.43

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

386 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.6 ±11.2

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 208.74Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 218.13Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 7.95Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.6 ±11.7

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 37.86Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 191.2Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 190.37Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 4028, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 4028, 8145

Auto

68.6 16%

Teleop

220.1 52%

Endgame

136.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9097, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 4096, 2338

Auto

82.8 21%

Teleop

208.5 52%

Endgame

111.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score434.8pts

Blue projected score419.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.4
Score range: 374–480
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 815 vs event baseline 249.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.6Season APEX668.6

68.6Auto82.8

220.1Teleop208.5

136.8Endgame111.8

14Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	107
teleop	180	197
endgame	116	125
foul	0	0
total	386	429

Result

Final score

386 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Match videos

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