Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

450.13 – 419.1

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.6 ±11.2

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 214.33Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 223.19Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 12.61Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.6 ±11.7

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 38.22Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 190.81Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 190.07Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 4028, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 4028, 8145

Auto

72.4 16%

Teleop

235.8 53%

Endgame

134.7 30%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9097, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 4096, 2338

Auto

76.9 19%

Teleop

212.4 53%

Endgame

111.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score450.1pts

Blue projected score419.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 375–494
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 245.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.6Season APEX668.6

72.4Auto76.9

235.8Teleop212.4

134.7Endgame111.5

5Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	110
teleop	204	183
endgame	132	98
foul	25	15
total	440	406

Result

Final score

440 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Match videos

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