Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.22 – 71.6

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±12.2

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 106.68Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -12.45Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 88.99Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±15.1

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 16.7Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 30.74Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 24.16Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2399, 6964, 4145

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2399, 6964, 4145

Auto

41.0 23%

Teleop

98.8 56%

Endgame

36.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7165, 9767, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7165, 9767, 4085

Auto

33.8 49%

Teleop

11.4 17%

Endgame

23.1 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.2pts

Blue projected score71.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.6
Score range: 44–211
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 155.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.9Season APEX192.5

41Auto33.8

98.8Teleop11.4

36.4Endgame23.1

16Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	22
teleop	132	29
endgame	76	42
foul	0	0
total	254	93

Result

Final score

254 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Match videos

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