Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.41 – 198.07

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

483 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.3 ±11.1

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 138.58Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 220.02Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 10.81Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.2 ±15.4

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 54.26Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 39.93Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 103.88Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 695, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 695, 5811

Auto

57.5 16%

Teleop

217.3 61%

Endgame

78.6 22%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 291, 5413, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 291, 5413, 2252

Auto

36.7 19%

Teleop

112.7 58%

Endgame

45.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score369.4pts

Blue projected score198.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.3
Score range: 170–397
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 699 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.3Season APEX405.2

57.5Auto36.7

217.3Teleop112.7

78.6Endgame45.3

26Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	36
teleop	293	115
endgame	110	65
foul	5	0
total	483	216

Result

Final score

483 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 pts

Match videos

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