Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.47 – 176.28

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471 ±13.3

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 26.25Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 40.96Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 42.26Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483 ±11.6

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 58.3Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 52.27Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 65.71Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10011, 1014, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10011, 1014, 2603

Auto

21.2 20%

Teleop

56.9 55%

Endgame

25.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 3201, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 3201, 8393

Auto

40.0 23%

Teleop

89.3 51%

Endgame

45.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.5pts

Blue projected score176.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.8
Score range: 82–203
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471Season APEX483

21.2Auto40

56.9Teleop89.3

25.5Endgame45.3

9Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	41
teleop	80	172
endgame	81	39
foul	20	10
total	204	262

Result

Final score

204 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Match videos

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