Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.53 – 70.1

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.3 ±11.1

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 145.52Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 227.37Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 15.64Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±15.1

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 16.68Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 32.57Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 20.85Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 695, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 695, 5811

Auto

66.3 18%

Teleop

221.1 60%

Endgame

82.7 22%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7165, 9767, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.1 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7165, 9767, 4085

Auto

32.4 49%

Teleop

6.6 10%

Endgame

27.1 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score388.5pts

Blue projected score70.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 318.4
Score range: 43–416
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.3Season APEX192.5

66.3Auto32.4

221.1Teleop6.6

82.7Endgame27.1

22Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	35
teleop	202	3
endgame	70	3
foul	10	5
total	310	46

Result

Final score

310 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Match videos

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