Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
169.71 – 174.79
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
242 – 176
Prediction missed · off by 36.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±12.2
Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 99.17Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 82Event APEX -15.23Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 85.77Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483 ±11.6
Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 56.74Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 54Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 64.05Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2399, 6964, 4145
66
/ 100 compatProjected
169.7 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 2399, 6964, 4145
Auto
32.1 19%
Teleop
97.9 59%
Endgame
36.0 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4121, 3201, 8393
70
/ 100 compatProjected
174.8 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4121, 3201, 8393
Auto
36.8 21%
Teleop
92.5 54%
Endgame
43.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.6
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score169.7pts
Blue projected score174.8pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -5.1
- Score range
- 143–202
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
439.9Season APEX483
32.1Auto36.8
97.9Teleop92.5
36Endgame43.5
29Consistency28
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 70 | 50 |
| teleop | 134 | 75 |
| endgame | 28 | 51 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 242 | 176 |
Result
Final score
242 – 176
Prediction missed · off by 36.8 pts
Match videos
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