Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.65 – 194.55

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483 ±11.6

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 66.44Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 61.31Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 75.9Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±12.2

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 111.05Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -9.44Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 92.94Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4121, 3201, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 3201, 8393

Auto

40.4 20%

Teleop

114.7 57%

Endgame

45.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2399, 6964, 4145

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2399, 6964, 4145

Auto

41.7 22%

Teleop

105.5 56%

Endgame

42.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.7pts

Blue projected score194.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 166–233
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483Season APEX439.9

40.4Auto41.7

114.7Teleop105.5

45.6Endgame42.4

13Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	46
teleop	100	89
endgame	51	46
foul	5	15
total	193	196

Result

Final score

193 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 6 pts

Match videos

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