Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.2 – 191.35

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.2 ±15.4

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 53.77Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 41.98Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 104.45Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483 ±11.6

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 61.44Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 57.88Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 72.03Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 291, 5413, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 291, 5413, 2252

Auto

36.4 18%

Teleop

112.4 57%

Endgame

48.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 3201, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4121, 3201, 8393

Auto

40.6 22%

Teleop

103.9 55%

Endgame

43.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score191.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 163–228
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 155.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.2Season APEX483

36.4Auto40.6

112.4Teleop103.9

48.5Endgame43.7

6Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	40
teleop	90	170
endgame	72	55
foul	5	5
total	190	270

Result

Final score

190 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 pts

Match videos

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