Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.29 – 136.31

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

475 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 183.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.8 ±13.5

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 30.29Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 92Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 56Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±14.1

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 32.89Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 70.66Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 32.76Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6834, 695, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6834, 695, 4611

Auto

44.6 26%

Teleop

93.1 54%

Endgame

34.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7165, 1507, 4121

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7165, 1507, 4121

Auto

16.2 12%

Teleop

90.9 68%

Endgame

25.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.3pts

Blue projected score136.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42
Score range: 113–201
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.8Season APEX328.2

44.6Auto16.2

93.1Teleop90.9

34.9Endgame25.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	19
teleop	275	107
endgame	115	75
foul	0	5
total	475	206

Result

Final score

475 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 183.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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