Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.57 – 107.43

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.8 ±16.5

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 16Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 24Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 34.57Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.5 ±14.1

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 80Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 16Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 11.43Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3193, 2603, 8713

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3193, 2603, 8713

Auto

16.0 23%

Teleop

25.7 37%

Endgame

28.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2399, 10207, 8243

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2399, 10207, 8243

Auto

22.6 21%

Teleop

69.4 65%

Endgame

14.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score107.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 53–129
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.8Season APEX436.5

16Auto22.6

25.7Teleop69.4

28.6Endgame14

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	56
teleop	51	101
endgame	17	35
foul	0	0
total	82	192

Result

Final score

82 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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