Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.28 – 128.39

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±15.1

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 48.68Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 36.75Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 29.85Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.5 ±13.5

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 17.55Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 14.78Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 96.06Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2172, 5413, 10011

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2172, 5413, 10011

Auto

34.5 30%

Teleop

74.0 65%

Endgame

6.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8145, 8243, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8145, 8243, 2252

Auto

27.4 22%

Teleop

72.4 59%

Endgame

23.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.1
Score range: 88–155
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.7Season APEX442.5

34.5Auto27.4

74Teleop72.4

6Endgame23.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	52	83
endgame	13	54
foul	0	5
total	85	159

Result

Final score

85 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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