Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.53 – 29.91

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.9 ±11.7

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 42.98Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 57.13Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 228.42Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±18.8

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX -11.18Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX 7.21Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 33.88Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2603, 4121, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2603, 4121, 695

Auto

59.3 19%

Teleop

170.3 55%

Endgame

80.3 26%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6936, 9622, 120

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6936, 9622, 120

Auto

13.7 59%

Teleop

6.2 26%

Endgame

3.5 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score328.5pts

Blue projected score29.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 298.6
Score range: 4–355
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.9Season APEX193.2

59.3Auto13.7

170.3Teleop6.2

80.3Endgame3.5

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	11
teleop	159	3
endgame	90	12
foul	0	0
total	320	26

Result

Final score

320 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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