Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.07 – 88.87

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.6 ±16

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 13.72Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -18.47Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 82.82Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±17.5

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 19.25Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 26.06Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 43.56Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9643, 6964, 4145

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9643, 6964, 4145

Auto

17.5 26%

Teleop

27.6 41%

Endgame

22.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8713, 9075, 291

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8713, 9075, 291

Auto

14.8 16%

Teleop

51.5 55%

Endgame

27.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score88.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.8
Score range: 51–116
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.6Season APEX290.2

17.5Auto14.8

27.6Teleop51.5

22Endgame27.4

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	58	47
endgame	33	44
foul	0	5
total	111	117

Result

Final score

111 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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