Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.42 – 80.37

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 66.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±12.8

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX -Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.6 ±15.1

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX -Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX -Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 39.43Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 291, 6964

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 27, 291, 6964

Auto

18.4 30%

Teleop

30.7 50%

Endgame

12.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6936, 2252, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6936, 2252, 3201

Auto

13.4 17%

Teleop

45.3 57%

Endgame

20.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.4pts

Blue projected score80.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19
Score range: 39–102
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.4Season APEX406.6

-Auto1.1

-Teleop24.9

-Endgame12

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	17
teleop	68	59
endgame	29	32
foul	0	5
total	162	113

Result

Final score

162 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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