Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.12 – 130.01

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 119.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.7 ±16.6

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 129.13Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 21.46Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 13.53Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.6 ±15.6

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 3.52Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 36.99Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 89.5Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 8718, 9194

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 8718, 9194

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

112.0 71%

Endgame

23.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9643, 2603, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9643, 2603, 2252

Auto

15.4 13%

Teleop

67.0 55%

Endgame

39.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.1pts

Blue projected score130pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.1
Score range: 104–190
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.7Season APEX468.6

23Auto15.4

112Teleop67

23.5Endgame39.7

40Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	26
teleop	119	92
endgame	43	46
foul	105	70
total	299	234

Result

Final score

299 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 119.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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