Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.03 – 58.81

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±19.2

3777Bean City Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 33.01Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 18.51Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 22.51Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.8 ±12.1

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 48.6Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 35.97Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -25.76Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3777, 8713, 10207

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3777, 8713, 10207

Auto

17.1 23%

Teleop

30.0 41%

Endgame

25.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3201, 1014, 6964

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 1014, 6964

Auto

6.2 11%

Teleop

32.3 60%

Endgame

15.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 33–100
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.8Season APEX399.8

17.1Auto6.2

30Teleop32.3

25.9Endgame15.5

14Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	29
teleop	16	65
endgame	12	38
foul	20	0
total	66	132

Result

Final score

66 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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