Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.41 – 96.11

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±15

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 16.72Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 13.38Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 28.31Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.4 ±17.5

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 34.45Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6916Iron Thunder

Provisional

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 18.4Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 43.26Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8243, 9194, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8243, 9194, 4085

Auto

32.2 56%

Teleop

15.9 28%

Endgame

9.2 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9767, 6916, 291

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9767, 6916, 291

Auto

32.8 35%

Teleop

48.1 51%

Endgame

14.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.4pts

Blue projected score96.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: 32–122
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 143.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.2Season APEX203.4

32.2Auto32.8

15.9Teleop48.1

9.2Endgame14.1

24Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	34	16
endgame	4	24
foul	5	0
total	58	68

Result

Final score

58 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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