Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.81 – 64.59

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

26 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.5 ±15.6

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 9.68Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX -8.79Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX 11.92Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±18.8

3777Bean City Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 37.59Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 17.04Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 9.96Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5811, 10208, 9622

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 10208, 9622

Auto

8.8 100%

Teleop

-11.3 0%

Endgame

10.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3777, 8145, 9643

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3777, 8145, 9643

Auto

10.5 18%

Teleop

27.9 49%

Endgame

19.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score12.8pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: -17–95
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 45 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.5Season APEX231.4

8.8Auto10.5

-11.3Teleop27.9

10.7Endgame19.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	2
teleop	16	12
endgame	1	5
foul	0	0
total	26	19

Result

Final score

26 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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