Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.01 – 145.35

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±12.8

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 23.29Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 77.86Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 48.86Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.1 ±13.6

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 113.57Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 22.49Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7885Panther Tech

Season APEX 68Event APEX 9.29Rank 16Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1308, 4145, 8393

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1308, 4145, 8393

Auto

30.2 21%

Teleop

86.4 60%

Endgame

28.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2399, 5811, 7885

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2399, 5811, 7885

Auto

25.3 17%

Teleop

90.4 60%

Endgame

34.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: 119–176
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 143.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.3Season APEX452.1

30.2Auto25.3

86.4Teleop90.4

28.2Endgame34.7

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	9
teleop	92	27
endgame	61	27
foul	0	25
total	202	88

Result

Final score

202 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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