Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.12 – 196.36

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.8 ±14.6

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 38.02Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -26.89Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 38.99Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.9 ±16.7

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 159.4Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX 5.97Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 30.99Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 6964, 5413

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 120, 6964, 5413

Auto

13.6 31%

Teleop

15.1 35%

Endgame

14.8 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 9622, 7165

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 9622, 7165

Auto

27.6 15%

Teleop

110.2 61%

Endgame

42.8 24%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score196.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.2
Score range: 24–222
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.8Season APEX311.9

13.6Auto27.6

15.1Teleop110.2

14.8Endgame42.8

16Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	32
teleop	25	100
endgame	20	64
foul	0	0
total	64	196

Result

Final score

64 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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