Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.47 – 92.9

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.2 ±17.7

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 20.98Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 67.48Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 3.01Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.3 ±14.5

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 26.14Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 24.11Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 42.65Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6834, 4121, 9643

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6834, 4121, 9643

Auto

15.6 18%

Teleop

30.2 35%

Endgame

40.7 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10207, 8145, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10207, 8145, 2603

Auto

26.5 31%

Teleop

34.0 40%

Endgame

25.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score92.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.4
Score range: 65–119
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.2Season APEX401.3

15.6Auto26.5

30.2Teleop34

40.7Endgame25

0Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	30	27
endgame	34	21
foul	0	5
total	79	66

Result

Final score

79 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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