Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75 – 289.14

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±15.6

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -13.89Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 4.61Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 84.28Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.4 ±11.1

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 230.24Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 23.33Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 35.57Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8140, 3193, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8140, 3193, 2252

Auto

17.7 24%

Teleop

29.7 41%

Endgame

25.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 695, 10208, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 10208, 1014

Auto

56.6 20%

Teleop

160.2 57%

Endgame

64.2 23%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75pts

Blue projected score289.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.1
Score range: 49–315
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.5Season APEX553.4

17.7Auto56.6

29.7Teleop160.2

25.4Endgame64.2

39Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	42
teleop	63	175
endgame	34	85
foul	0	0
total	119	302

Result

Final score

119 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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