Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.46 – 124.27

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±16

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 37.11Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 20.13Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 128.22Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±12.2

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 46.34Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 46.98Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 30.95Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10011, 8713, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10011, 8713, 1507

Auto

27.1 15%

Teleop

115.7 63%

Endgame

41.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3201, 8393, 8222

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3201, 8393, 8222

Auto

30.0 26%

Teleop

72.5 62%

Endgame

14.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185.5pts

Blue projected score124.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.2
Score range: 98–211
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.8Season APEX450.1

27.1Auto30

115.7Teleop72.5

41.6Endgame14.8

8Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	33
teleop	126	74
endgame	21	18
foul	0	15
total	187	140

Result

Final score

187 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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