Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.46 – 204.77

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.1 ±14.6

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 30.14Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 85.02Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 50.3Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.1 ±16.7

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 155.86Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 11.95Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 36.96Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5811, 4145, 291

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 4145, 291

Auto

47.4 29%

Teleop

91.3 57%

Endgame

22.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 8718, 5413

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 8718, 5413

Auto

32.0 16%

Teleop

120.8 59%

Endgame

50.7 25%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.5pts

Blue projected score204.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 139–231
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.1Season APEX402.1

47.4Auto32

91.3Teleop120.8

22.8Endgame50.7

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	52
teleop	59	110
endgame	35	33
foul	0	35
total	111	230

Result

Final score

111 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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