Qualification · Qualification 52
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
112.06 – 9.53
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
115 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.4 ±13.3
Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 33.73Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 35.26Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 43.07Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.9 ±15.6
Season APEX 82Event APEX -29.83Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
6916Iron Thunder
Provisional
Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 20.27Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 19.09Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1014, 9767, 2603
59
/ 100 compatProjected
112.1 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 1014, 9767, 2603
Auto
29.3 27%
Teleop
50.5 47%
Endgame
27.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6964, 6916, 10208
3
/ 100 compatProjected
9.5 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6964, 6916, 10208
Auto
0.4 4%
Teleop
1.9 19%
Endgame
7.9 77%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score112.1pts
Blue projected score9.5pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 102.5
- Score range
- -16–138
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
414.4Season APEX198.9
29.3Auto0.4
50.5Teleop1.9
27.5Endgame7.9
96Consistency28
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 13 |
| teleop | 29 | 5 |
| endgame | 29 | 9 |
| foul | 30 | 0 |
| total | 115 | 27 |
Result
Final score
115 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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