Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.8 – 0

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.1 ±14.4

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 78.96Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 126.63Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 17.21Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.5 ±19.2

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -18.72Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 13.26Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9622GRIDLOCK

Provisional

Season APEX 28.6Event APEX -1.85Rank 31Record 4-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2252, 1507, 6834

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2252, 1507, 6834

Auto

28.4 13%

Teleop

131.1 59%

Endgame

63.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8140, 8243, 9622

/ 100 compat

Projected

-7.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8140, 8243, 9622

Auto

19.8 0%

Teleop

-26.6 100%

Endgame

-7.6 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score222.8pts

Blue projected score-7.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.8
Score range: -26–249
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.1Season APEX136.5

28.4Auto19.8

131.1Teleop-26.6

63.1Endgame-7.6

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	174	2
endgame	44	4
foul	15	10
total	261	36

Result

Final score

261 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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