Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.87 – 142.15

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.8 ±14.3

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 217.11Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 76.71Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6916Iron Thunder

Provisional

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 16.05Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±15.8

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 95.95Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 20.67Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 25.53Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 8393, 6916

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 8393, 6916

Auto

68.2 23%

Teleop

166.2 55%

Endgame

68.3 23%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4145, 8222, 6834

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4145, 8222, 6834

Auto

36.0 28%

Teleop

70.2 54%

Endgame

24.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score309.9pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.7
Score range: 112–340
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.8Season APEX302.3

68.2Auto36

166.2Teleop70.2

68.3Endgame24.7

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	48
teleop	191	18
endgame	63	30
foul	5	10
total	322	106

Result

Final score

322 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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