Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.39 – 294.29

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±18

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 10.64Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 108.15Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 13.6Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.7 ±13.7

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 29.75Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

291CIA - Creativity In Action

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 40.97Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 223.57Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8718, 2399, 8713

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8718, 2399, 8713

Auto

31.6 24%

Teleop

79.0 60%

Endgame

20.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 120, 291, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 120, 291, 695

Auto

68.8 24%

Teleop

151.1 54%

Endgame

61.8 22%

Strengths

· 695 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score294.3pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.9
Score range: 106–320
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX527.7

31.6Auto68.8

79Teleop151.1

20.9Endgame61.8

58Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	70
teleop	93	224
endgame	54	59
foul	5	5
total	168	358

Result

Final score

168 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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