Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.1 – 106

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±17.1

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -18.26Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 31.37Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 17.99Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±12.7

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 114.49Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -44.24Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 35.75Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8140, 5413, 10208

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8140, 5413, 10208

Auto

13.1 40%

Teleop

2.6 8%

Endgame

17.4 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 6964, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 6964, 2603

Auto

11.5 12%

Teleop

66.1 67%

Endgame

21.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score31.1pts

Blue projected score106pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.9
Score range: 5–132
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX392.6

13.1Auto11.5

2.6Teleop66.1

17.4Endgame21.5

6Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	23	112
endgame	18	60
foul	0	0
total	59	192

Result

Final score

59 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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