Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.08 – 70.26

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455 ±14.1

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 86.77Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 42.2Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 32.11Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±13.3

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 12.53Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 31.42Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 26.31Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2252, 9075, 7165

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2252, 9075, 7165

Auto

11.8 7%

Teleop

90.6 57%

Endgame

57.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3193, 5811, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3193, 5811, 8145

Auto

26.0 37%

Teleop

29.8 43%

Endgame

13.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.1pts

Blue projected score70.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.8
Score range: 44–187
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455Season APEX366.8

11.8Auto26

90.6Teleop29.8

57.1Endgame13.9

25Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	12
teleop	85	21
endgame	38	12
foul	0	0
total	139	45

Result

Final score

139 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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