Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.2 – 216.56

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.3 ±13.5

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 49.9Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 36.78Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 66.52Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.4 ±12.2

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 27.12Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 39.66Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 149.78Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8393, 10207, 2172

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8393, 10207, 2172

Auto

28.9 19%

Teleop

106.1 70%

Endgame

16.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1308, 3201, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1308, 3201, 4611

Auto

27.6 13%

Teleop

145.3 68%

Endgame

42.1 20%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.2pts

Blue projected score216.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.4
Score range: 128–242
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.3Season APEX458.4

28.9Auto27.6

106.1Teleop145.3

16.3Endgame42.1

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	20
teleop	64	171
endgame	14	63
foul	5	15
total	109	269

Result

Final score

109 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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