Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.72 – 132.56

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.9 ±15.1

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 83.31Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7165Perkins Pirates

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 29.6Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 13.81Rank 40Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.1 ±18.4

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 4.27Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8140RoboManiacs

Provisional

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX 5.19Rank 41Record 1-10-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 123.1Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4145, 7165, 3193

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4145, 7165, 3193

Auto

21.0 18%

Teleop

53.7 45%

Endgame

43.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6936, 8140, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6936, 8140, 1507

Auto

12.4 10%

Teleop

86.9 68%

Endgame

28.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.7pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.8
Score range: 102–158
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.9Season APEX195.1

21Auto12.4

53.7Teleop86.9

43.4Endgame28.9

64Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	25
teleop	70	15
endgame	33	8
foul	5	0
total	137	48

Result

Final score

137 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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