Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.19 – 170.58

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±12.2

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -33.52Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 94.55Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 25.16Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.9 ±14.9

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 42.29Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 106.55Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6834Bionic Warriors

Season APEX 55Event APEX 21.74Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6964, 2252, 10011

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 2252, 10011

Auto

4.2 5%

Teleop

38.4 45%

Endgame

42.6 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4085, 2399, 6834

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4085, 2399, 6834

Auto

47.1 27%

Teleop

95.2 56%

Endgame

29.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.2pts

Blue projected score170.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.4
Score range: 60–197
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.6Season APEX336.9

4.2Auto47.1

38.4Teleop95.2

42.6Endgame29.1

94Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	22
teleop	2	62
endgame	0	64
foul	0	5
total	41	153

Result

Final score

41 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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