Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.46 – 83.22

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.3 ±17.4

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 10.34Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9643Lady Voltage

Provisional

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX -11.27Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 262.39Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.2 ±13.9

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 34.76Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 31.7Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 16.76Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8713, 9643, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8713, 9643, 27

Auto

65.4 24%

Teleop

155.6 57%

Endgame

52.0 19%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 120, 2603, 8222

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 120, 2603, 8222

Auto

27.4 35%

Teleop

39.8 51%

Endgame

11.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score261.5pts

Blue projected score83.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 178.2
Score range: 58–286
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.3Season APEX399.2

65.4Auto27.4

155.6Teleop39.8

52Endgame11.3

105Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	19
teleop	160	31
endgame	64	16
foul	15	35
total	323	101

Result

Final score

323 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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