Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.97 – 102.29

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.2 ±12.9

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 147.63Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 19.28Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 36.06Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±15.2

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 41.4Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 26.76Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 34.13Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4611, 10208, 10207

/ 100 compat

Projected

203 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 10208, 10207

Auto

31.9 16%

Teleop

119.3 59%

Endgame

52.3 26%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5413, 9194, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5413, 9194, 1014

Auto

16.5 15%

Teleop

73.2 68%

Endgame

17.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203pts

Blue projected score102.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.7
Score range: 77–228
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 141.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.2Season APEX337.5

31.9Auto16.5

119.3Teleop73.2

52.3Endgame17.3

14Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	20
teleop	105	23
endgame	50	28
foul	5	5
total	195	76

Result

Final score

195 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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