Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.43 – 91

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.9 ±12.7

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 20.65Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 105.21Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 23.57Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±14.5

9194Gemin√-1s

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 30.41Rank 35Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 89

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 26.69Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 33.9Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1014, 1507, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1014, 1507, 4085

Auto

19.7 14%

Teleop

96.9 71%

Endgame

20.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9194, 10011, 120

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9194, 10011, 120

Auto

13.4 14%

Teleop

61.8 67%

Endgame

17.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score91pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.4
Score range: 65–175
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.9Season APEX359.6

19.7Auto13.4

96.9Teleop61.8

20.8Endgame17.4

122Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	26
teleop	161	31
endgame	40	22
foul	0	0
total	238	79

Result

Final score

238 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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