Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.45 – 82.65

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±18

6916Iron Thunder

Provisional

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 32.34Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 160.52Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6936Vault 6936

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 13.59Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±16.6

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 27.97Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8713Nordonia Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 22.95Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 31.73Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6916, 4611, 6936

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6916, 4611, 6936

Auto

23.9 12%

Teleop

129.7 65%

Endgame

44.8 23%

Strengths

· 4611 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8243, 8713, 10208

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8243, 8713, 10208

Auto

13.0 15%

Teleop

51.7 58%

Endgame

24.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score206.5pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.8
Score range: 57–232
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX207.1

23.9Auto13

129.7Teleop51.7

44.8Endgame24.7

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	24
teleop	119	8
endgame	19	6
foul	0	0
total	168	38

Result

Final score

168 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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